Library and Information Science

Purpose: Although several studies have been conducted in the past on the function predicting book circulation in Japanese public libraries, the issue has not been studied actively in recent years. The purpose of this study is to re-examine the suitability of a linear regression model to predict the number of book circulations in public libraries per community.

Methods: A similar model to that used in the previous studies was adopted. The dependent variable is book circulation per capita in each community. Independent variables can be divided into two groups of factors: factors related to the library, including the volume of the library collection; and community factors, including population density. There are three groups of target communities: (1) the communities targeted in previous studies, (2) all communities in Japan, and (3) cities divided into eight regions. The objective of analysis of target (1) is to verify whether it is still possible to develop a highly accurate model in the regions covered by the previous studies. The objectives in targets (2) and (3) are to verify whether we can develop the same in other regions.

Results: It was possible to construct highly accurate models (adjusted R2 are 0.7 to 0.8) in the majority of regions covered in previous studies. However, it proved extremely difficult to construct the same when all communities in Japan were targeted. Furthermore, outside of the regions covered by the previous studies, it was not always possible to construct a highly accurate model simply by dividing communities into regions.